blogHalf of Americans are in Obama’s “base”
In the discussion of “electability,” and which broadly defined constituencies are and aren’t drawn to Barack Obama, the focus has been on what has turned out to be Hillary Clinton’s strongest constituencies — working-class whites and people over 65. There is conversely a tendency to consider Obama’s reliably enthusiastic constituencies — black voters, voters under 30, voters with college degrees — as an insufficient coalition on which to base a winning presidential campaign.
But do the math, and this default piece of common sense doesn’t look so convincing. College-educated people are more than a quarter of the population (and an even higher fraction of those who vote), people under 30 are 15%, and African-Americans are 11.5%. In other words, those three groups combined make up half the electorate.
In my opinion Hillary Clinton’s strongest constituencies isn’t so much as her tapping working-class whites and people over 65, it is more evidence that she exposed radical divides.
All of her past acts, ChinaGate ,TravelGate, lies and lies about not lying was enough for anyone just listning , let alone resurching Her past, to drop her!
Just like all of us “Car Door Lockers” in a Bad Neighborhood , some will admit it and a lot more won’t. I do admit it and any fool who dosen’t, lock there door, is just that, A Fool.
It won’t stop a Brick. I know that first hand, but the way race has been addressed in this country in the past is not working when you do the math on our Jail and Prison Populations.
Prior to this election the Brains behind the scenes used home values and per-capital income to chart a politicians course. Hillary Clinton’s insufficient coalition never had a clue and when they finally caught on to the new game it was to late. There run to the “Back Room” to get the Good Old Boys in the Party to save her with there Super Delegate votes face a total melt down of the Democratic Party if they Over Ride the Voters and they know it.
Comment by ubuibiok — May 20, 2008 @ 4:16 pm
I’ve been thinking the same thing when I’ve been hearing this business about working-class whites not voting for Obama. For one thing, not ALL working-class whites don’t like him. Even in Kentucky, he got 30% of the vote. And though I’m only one person, I am a white woman who is 62, and I think he’s terrific. I haven’t been this interested in a candidate since I was a teenager. When I voted for him in the California election, it was a thrill. And I can’t imagine I’m the only one.
Comment by WendyS9 — May 22, 2008 @ 4:00 am
I would think those groups overlap to some extent and therefore cannot be simply added up.
Comment by rurikbird — May 22, 2008 @ 1:31 pm
Dear Kurt,
I share your enthusiasm for Obama but remember set theory from primary school? Since it is probable that many potential Obama voters are college-educated AND under 30 AND African-American, there is overlap among these groups/sets–the total would be less than 51.5% of the population.
Comment by teasel — May 22, 2008 @ 5:47 pm
There is some overlap among these three groups, it’s true, but the non-overlapping total still approaches half the electorate. African-Americans are 11.5% of the population; whites with four-year college degrees are 24% of the population; and about 7% if the population is white, under 30 and without a college degree. Which adds up to 42.5% — not half, it’s true, but still larger than the non-overlapping sum of “Hillary voters” — i.e. white working-class people plus older women plus the elderly.
Comment by kurt — May 24, 2008 @ 11:24 am
Recently I saw on one of the cable networks that if the popular vote in Florida and Michigan were counted that Hillary would be
ahead of Obama. I know from bitter experience that young people tend not to vote as well as black people. Tom Bradley lost his race for Governor of California because his base constituency in S.Central L.A. did not vote causing him to lose.
Comment by EDSOPINION.COM — May 24, 2008 @ 11:36 pm
If the popular vote in Florida and Michigan are counted Hillary is ahead in the popular vote. Does that count for nothing?
The Obama’s delegate vote includes many uncontested caucus votes by Hillary. The youth vote has yet to be decisive in any election and the black vote has failed to support many black politicians.
When it comes down to the nitty gritty between McCain and the democratic candidate The people who voted for Hillary will be needed to win this election.Will they vote for Obama if nominated? Also who are the super delegates supposed to support;the candidate with the most delegates or the one with the popular vote, or on some other basis cooked up in a backroom at the convention. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet.
Comment by EDSOPINION.COM — May 25, 2008 @ 7:46 pm
Outstanding Article , I thought it was wonderful
I look forward to more similar postings like this one. Does This Blog have a newsletter I can subscribe to for new posts?
Comment by Hextinfotte — November 24, 2009 @ 1:52 am